RENEWABLES UPDATE
Here’s a measured, comparative picture of where Australia sits on the renewables uptake at the start of 2026; what’s working, where it still lags, and how it stacks up with a handful of other advanced economies.
Recent progress (and why it matters)
Australia has moved very quickly in the last few years. In the December quarter of 2025, the National Electricity Market (which covers the eastern and southern states but excludes Western Australia and the Northern Territory) recorded renewables supplying just over 50% of generation, a genuine milestone driven by rapid additions of rooftop and utility-scale solar, strong wind output and a fast expansion of battery storage. That shift also coincided with declining coal output and a substantial increase in battery discharge.
That progress is important because it demonstrates the technical feasibility of high renewable shares in a large, geographically dispersed system: solar and wind, together with storage, are already meeting a far greater share of demand than they did even five years ago. But the headline hides variation between regions (and between day and night): rooftop solar dominates daytime supply, batteries and gas still fill some gaps, and legacy coal plants remain important for system security.
How Australia compares with selected nations
Denmark the world leader on proportion
Denmark routinely posts among the highest shares of renewable energy in Europe. In 2024–25, Denmark’s electricity system was dominated by wind, leading to renewable shares in the high eighties per cent in some datasets. That level is only achievable in regions with substantial wind resources, strong interconnections, and a long-term policy focus on electrification and grid integration.
Germany - scale and industrial transition
Germany has also seen rapid growth in renewables and, in 2024, recorded a renewables share in net public electricity generation exceeding 60%, led by wind and a rapid roll-out of solar. Germany’s example is useful because it shows how an industrialised, high-demand economy can cut fossil generation fast — but also how variable wind conditions and grid constraints can still force temporary reliance on gas or coal.
United Kingdom - a notable pivot to low-carbon power
The UK surpassed the 50% renewable electricity target in 2024, reflecting both offshore wind expansion and investment in grid infrastructure. The UK’s achievement underlines that a combination of policy certainty (auctions, stable contracts) and rapid offshore wind deployment can move a high-income country to a majority-renewables grid within a decade.
United States - big capacity but slower share growth
The US has added large amounts of wind and solar capacity, yet because of its existing heavy gas and nuclear fleet and the sheer scale of demand, renewables still accounted for roughly one-fifth to just over one-fifth of utility-scale generation in recent years, with wind and solar together reaching new records but not yet dominating the system as they do in smaller European grids. The US story illustrates that capacity build-out alone isn’t sufficient: market structure, regional differences, and demand size matter.
Where Australia stands out (the positives)
• Rapid distributed solar uptake. Australia is one of the world leaders in rooftop PV per capita, which has materially lifted daytime renewable penetration.
• Fast growth of storage. Large-scale batteries and increased battery discharge are already helping balance variability and shaving peaks.
• Investment momentum. Year-on-year capacity additions — both utility and rooftop — have been large and sustained, and policy targets have increasingly signalled a long-term shift towards clean electricity.
Where Australia still faces challenges (and why they matter)
• Market and grid integration. The National Electricity Market was designed around large thermal generators; integrating widely distributed solar, variable wind and many storage assets requires upgrades to transmission, faster frequency control services, better interconnection and smarter wholesale market rules.
• Regional disparity. Western Australia and the Northern Territory sit outside the NEM and follow different dynamics; national headline figures can therefore mask regional shortfalls.
• Politics and policy stability. Rapid deployment requires predictable, durable frameworks to attract long-term financing; periodic political contention over energy policy has at times impeded clarity on the path forward. (This is a general observation reflected in policy reviews.)
Context: global trajectory and what to expect
Globally, the International Energy Agency and industry analysts expect renewable shares to climb substantially through the 2020s as solar and wind account for most new capacity. The IEA forecasts that the global share of renewable electricity will expand markedly by 2030, and organisations tracking country performance indicate that an increasing number of countries will exceed the 30–50% threshold. Australia’s current trajectory — with high solar, growing wind and expanding storage — is consistent with that global trend, but future success will hinge on grid upgrades, policy stability and storage scale-up.
Concluding assessment (practical takeaway)
Australia has moved from laggard to leader in certain respects — particularly rooftop solar and recent quarterly milestones in the NEM —, but it sits behind some northern European systems on absolute renewables share, where geography and strong interconnection make extremely high penetrations easier. Compared with the US, Australia’s per-capita rooftop and near-term grid penetration look stronger; compared with Denmark or parts of Germany, Australia still has work to do on system integration, firming capacity and transmission. The technical path is clear: more storage, smarter grids and stronger interconnection will convert capacity gains into reliable, near-100% renewables operation. The policy and investment choices in the next five years will determine whether Australia finishes the decade among the most renewables-dense electricity systems in the world — or simply among the fastest-growing.
We all know I’m no Einstein. The only reason I can write on this subject is the marvellous work of organisations like the Climate Council, Australia's leading climate change communications non-profit organisation, formed to provide independent, authoritative information on climate change and its solutions to the Australian public. As a years-long proud member, I urge you to check out their website and support their work if you’re able.
