What’s In It for Us?
Australia’s government has publicly and explicitly supported the US-Israel strikes on Iran. In a joint statement last night, Albanese, Wong and Marles said Australia supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security. They also stated that Australia stands with the brave people of Iran in their struggle against oppression.
Albanese described the Iranian regime as a long-term destabilising force and referenced Iranian-directed attacks on Australian soil in 2024 that targeted the Jewish community, which led to the expulsion of Iran’s ambassador and suspension of the Tehran embassy. While this position aligns with the US alliance and non-proliferation goals, publicly backing the operation as one of the few countries to do so openly, alongside Canada, carries several negative consequences.
Many are already materialising or being officially warned about. The government has warned of reprisal attacks and further escalation across the Middle East. Iran or its proxies, such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Shia militias, could target Australian citizens, diplomats, businesses, or interests in the region, or attempt asymmetric attacks, including cyber operations or terrorism inside Australia, building on the 2024 incidents.
The government has activated its crisis centre and is managing heightened threats. Travel disruptions are significant, with updated Smartraveller advice stating do not travel to Iran and leave as soon as it is safe to do so, as well as for Israel and Lebanon. Thousands of Australians, including dual nationals, are in the region. Many are now sheltering in place or facing flight cancellations and closed airspace. This creates immediate costs for evacuations, family distress, increased workload for DFAT, and risks of Australians being detained or caught in crossfire.
Economically, any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes, or to Iranian exports could push global oil prices higher. One analyst warned of quick spikes to US$90–100 per barrel in a serious escalation, which could raise petrol prices in Australia by over 30 cents per litre. Flow-on effects include higher inflation, increased cost of living, reduced consumer spending, and possible pressure on the RBA. Past modelling of similar Middle East shocks estimated a 0.15–0.20% hit to Australian GDP. God, I hate researching these bits, being an economic klutz - I hope I got it right.
Diplomatically and reputationally, relations with Iran are now even more toxic after already being nonexistent. It strains ties with China, Australia’s largest trading partner, which has criticised the strikes, and with Russia. Many European countries, the UN, and others have called for restraint or labelled the strikes as escalatory or illegal under the UN Charter. This puts Australia at odds with the broader international consensus and could undermine our credentials as a supporter of the rules-based order.
To me, it’s just Albo et al blindly following the US, reducing our independent middle-power voice.
Domestically, there are signs of political and social backlash (Albo lowering the temperature). Early reactions from some on the left include longtime Labour supporters saying they will never vote for the ALP again, calling the stance warmongering. The Australian-Iranian community is divided as well. Some diaspora groups celebrate potential regime weakening, but others and broader Muslim or pro-Palestine communities are furious and already organising protests, leaving Minns champing at the bit.
There’s also a risk of being drawn deeper into the conflict. If the war escalates, there could be pressure for greater Australian involvement, including intelligence support via Pine Gap, logistics, or even personnel, despite Albanese emphasising that Australia has not made a direct military contribution so far. Longer-term regional instability could affect trade routes, refugee flows, and defence spending. These risks are real and acknowledged in the government’s own statements and travel warnings.
It’s still early days, and no doubt the usual suspects will flood the airwaves and socials with their standard opinionated claptrap, but as hard as I try, I can’t seem to find any positives in Australia’s support for these attacks. Albo may be a cowardly little asshole, but he’s not stupid. He knows the risks but still chooses to put America and Israel first.
To ensure I’m able to keep sharing my thoughts as clearly as possible despite my gradual cognitive decline, I’ve started relying on Grammarly to polish sentence structure, improve clarity and conciseness (helping rein in my tendency to ramble a bit), suggest words when they slip my mind, and ensure each post stays true to my own natural tone and voice. I write it, Grammarly fixes it. Respect for the reader.
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